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001 | 2007042507 | ||
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005 | 20241127170627.0 | ||
008 | 071011s2008 nyua b 001 0 eng | ||
010 | _a 2007042507 | ||
020 |
_a9780375424045 (cloth) : _c24.95 |
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_a0375424040 (cloth) : _c24.95 |
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_aDLC _cDLC _dDLC _dNjBwBT |
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_aQA273 _b.M63 2008 |
069 | _a08023005 | ||
090 | _aQA 273 .M63 2008 | ||
090 | _aQA 273 .M63 2008 | ||
100 | 1 |
_aMlodinow, Leonard, _d1954- _990574 |
|
245 | 1 | 4 |
_aThe drunkard's walk : _bhow randomness rules our lives / _cLeonard Mlodinow. |
250 | _a1st ed. | ||
260 |
_aNew York, NY : _bPantheon Books, _cc2008. |
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300 |
_axi, 252 p. : _bill. ; _c25 cm. |
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336 |
_2rdacontent _atext _btxt |
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337 |
_2rdamedia _aunmediated _bn |
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338 |
_2rdacarrier _avolume _bnc |
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504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 223-238) and index. | ||
505 | 0 | _aCh. 1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness: The hidden role of chance...when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- Ch. 2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths: The basic principles of probability and how they are abused...why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Ch. 3. Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities: A framework for thinking about random situations...from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Lets Make a Deal -- Ch. 4. Tracking the Pathways to Success: How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters...the mathematical meaning of expectation -- Ch. 5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers: The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe...Zenos paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- Ch. 6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies: How to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge...mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutors fallacy -- Ch. 7. Measurement and the Law of Errors: The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements...the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- Ch. 8. The Order in Chaos: How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness...or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Ch. 9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion: Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events...can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- Ch. 10. The Drunkards Walk: Why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality...Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life. | |
520 | _aAn irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize. | ||
650 | 0 |
_aRandom variables. _957586 |
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650 | 0 |
_aProbabilities. _911067 |
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650 | 0 |
_aChance. _99315 |
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852 |
_9p24.95 _y12-03-2008 |
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