000			03264cam a2200409 a 4500
001			2007042507
003			DLC
005			20240430144445.0
008			071011s2008 nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2007042507
020			_a9780375424045 (cloth) : _c24.95
020			_a0375424040 (cloth) : _c24.95
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dDLC _dNjBwBT
050	0	0	_aQA273 _b.M63 2008
069			_a08023005
090			_aQA 273 .M63 2008
090			_aQA 273 .M63 2008
100	1		_aMlodinow, Leonard, _d1954- _990574
245	1	4	_aThe drunkard's walk : _bhow randomness rules our lives / _cLeonard Mlodinow.
250			_a1st ed.
260			_aNew York, NY : _bPantheon Books, _cc2008.
300			_axi, 252 p. : _bill. ; _c25 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 223-238) and index.
505	0		_aCh. 1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness: The hidden role of chance...when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- Ch. 2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths: The basic principles of probability and how they are abused...why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Ch. 3. Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities: A framework for thinking about random situations...from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Lets Make a Deal -- Ch. 4. Tracking the Pathways to Success: How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters...the mathematical meaning of expectation -- Ch. 5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers: The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe...Zenos paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- Ch. 6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies: How to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge...mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutors fallacy -- Ch. 7. Measurement and the Law of Errors: The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements...the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- Ch. 8. The Order in Chaos: How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness...or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Ch. 9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion: Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events...can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- Ch. 10. The Drunkards Walk: Why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality...Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life.
520			_aAn irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.
650		0	_aRandom variables. _957586
650		0	_aProbabilities. _911067
650		0	_aChance. _99315
852			_9p24.95 _y12-03-2008
907			_a22877 _b08-06-10 _c08-06-10
942			_cBOOK _00
998			_aaudmc _b12-03-08 _cm _da _e- _feng _gnyu _h4
935			_a32650
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999			_c22877 _d22877