TY  - BOOK
AU  - Mlodinow,Leonard
TI  - The drunkard's walk: how randomness rules our lives 
SN  - 9780375424045 (cloth) :
AV  - QA273 .M63 2008
PY  - 2008///
CY  - New York, NY
PB  - Pantheon Books
KW  - Random variables
KW  - Probabilities
KW  - Chance
N1  - Includes bibliographical references (p. 223-238) and index; Ch. 1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness: The hidden role of chance...when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- Ch. 2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths: The basic principles of probability and how they are abused...why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Ch. 3. Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities: A framework for thinking about random situations...from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Lets Make a Deal -- Ch. 4. Tracking the Pathways to Success: How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters...the mathematical meaning of expectation -- Ch. 5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers: The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe...Zenos paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- Ch. 6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies: How to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge...mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutors fallacy -- Ch. 7. Measurement and the Law of Errors: The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements...the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- Ch. 8. The Order in Chaos: How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness...or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Ch. 9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion: Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events...can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- Ch. 10. The Drunkards Walk: Why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality...Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life
N2  - An irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize
ER  -