TY  - BOOK
AU  - Cordesman,Anthony H.
TI  - Saudi Arabia enters the twenty-first century: the political, foreign policy, economic, and energy dimensions 
SN  - 0275979989 (alk. paper)
AV  - DS244.52 .C67 2003
PY  - 2003///
CY  - Westport, Conn.
PB  - Praeger
KW  - National security
KW  - Saudi Arabia
KW  - Petroleum industry and trade
KW  - Politics and government
KW  - 20th century
N1  - Includes bibliographical references (p. [561]-570) and index; Oil and Saudi Progress -- Historical Origins -- The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century -- The Coming Domestic Challenges -- The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century -- "Oil Crash" and "Oil Boom" in 1996-2001: A Case Study -- The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income -- The Ongoing Saudi Response -- Setting the Pace of Implementation -- The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century -- Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities -- Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements -- The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West -- Foreign Relations and External Security -- Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats -- The Problem of Iran -- The Problem of Iraq -- Trying to Live with the "Enemy" -- The Threat of Iraqi Invasion -- Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare -- Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The Saudi Approach to "Dual Containment" and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein -- The Southern Gulf and Yemen -- Relations with Yemen -- Relations with Oman -- Relations with Qatar -- Relations with Kuwait -- Relations with Bahrain -- Relations with the UAE -- Saudi Arabia and the GCC -- Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict -- The Saudi Shift Toward Peace -- Peace and the Second Intifada -- Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal -- The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002 -- The Arab Peace Initiative -- Relations with Egypt -- Relations with Syria -- Relations with Jordan -- Relations with the Greater Arab World -- Relations with the United States and the West -- The Formative Period: 1933-1953 -- Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953-1968 -- The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War -- The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah -- The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War -- The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001 -- Developments Since September 11 -- Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century -- Politics and Internal Stability -- The Monarchy, the Majlis al-Shura, and the Royal Family -- Evolution and Stability -- Current Prospects for the Succession -- The Need for Change in the Next Generation -- The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers -- The Creation of the Majlis al-Shura -- The Changing Saudi Political System -- Political Reform and Opposition -- Opposition and Islamic Extremism -- Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi "Modernizers" -- The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism -- Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective -- Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money -- Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not "Wahhabism" -- Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth -- Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque -- Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s -- Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound -- Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution -- Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition -- Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism -- Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali -- Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda -- Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh 'Ayd al-Qarni -- "Quasi-Violent" Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari -- Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing -- Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy -- The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation -- Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997 -- The United States Issues an Indictment -- The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah -- The Detailed History of the Attack -- The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up -- The Saudis React with Denials -- Sunni versus Shi'ite -- Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda -- Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats -- Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism -- International Cooperation -- Arrests and Questioning of Suspects -- Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering -- Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations -- Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism -- Looking Toward the Future -- Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges -- The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change -- Trends in Total Population -- Trends Toward Urbanization -- Trends Toward Education -- Population Exposure to Media -- The Future Pace of Demographic Change -- Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption -- Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth -- Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth -- Redefining "Oil Wealth" in Macroeconomic and Human Terms -- Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the Saudi Labor Force -- Estimating Future Job Needs -- The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan -- Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force -- The "Youth Explosion," Foreign Labor, and Saudisation -- The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation -- Real-World Progress in Saudisation -- The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation -- Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment -- The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan -- Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education -- A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses -- Progress in the Sixth Development Plan -- The Impact of September 11 -- Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan -- Looking Toward the Future -- Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems -- The Challenge of Subsidies -- Pressure on Infrastructure -- Electricity as a Case in Point -- The Broader Infrastructure Problem -- The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture -- Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan -- The Impact of Agriculture -- Sustaining a National Water Problem -- Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges -- Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State -- The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century -- The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet -- Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform -- The Supreme Economic Council -- The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC) -- The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM) -- The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) -- A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures -- The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law -- Reductions in Taxes -- Foreign Ownership of Real Estate -- Fund for the Development of Human Resources -- "Negative List" of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment -- Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO -- The Supreme Commission for Tourism -- Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies -- Future Reforms Now Under Consideration -- Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements -- The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans -- The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War -- The Sixth Development Plan -- Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan -- The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan -- The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan -- The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues -- The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence -- Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum -- "Oil Bust" and "Oil Boom": The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces -- OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997 -- The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom -- Oil Wealth and Demographics: Understanding the Future Limits -- The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector -- Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget -- Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s -- Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan -- Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom -- The Need for Budget Reforms -- Foreign and Domestic State Debt -- The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden -- Past History and Future Risk -- Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation -- The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification -- The Growth of the Private Sector -- The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector -- The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC -- The Privatization of Natural Gas -- The Privatization of Telecommunications -- The Privatization of Saudi Airlines -- The Privatization of Postal Services -- The Privatization of Electricity -- The Privatization of the General Railway Organization -- The Privatization of the General Port Authority -- Overall Progress in Privatization -- Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform -- Investment and Stock Market Reform -- Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment -- Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform -- Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector -- The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves -- Saudi Oil Production -- The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco -- Saudi Oil Production Today -- Oil Production and Quotas -- Saudi Oil Exports -- Expanding Saudi Oil Production -- The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production -- Export Facilities and Distribution -- Refining -- Refining in Saudi Arabia -- Refining Overseas -- Petrochemicals -- Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) -- Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment -- Natural Gas -- Saudi Gas Production -- Saudi Domestic Gas Use -- Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector -- Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century -- The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan -- The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister -- Longer-Term Saudi Strategy -- Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections -- Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach --; Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand -- Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies -- The Problem of Oil Prices -- The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy -- Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch -- Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil -- Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy -- The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues -- The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy -- Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as Much Pragmatism, as Possible -- Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions -- Political Change -- Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future -- The Need for a New Social Contract -- Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty? -- Creating the Need for a New Social Contract -- The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare -- Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector -- Population and Foreign Workers -- The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization
N2  - Cordesman analyses the major political and economic changes that confront Saudi Arabia and assesses their impact on regional stability
ER  -