TY  - BOOK
AU  - Lapin,Lawrence L.
AU  - Whisler,William D.
AU  - Lapin,Lawrence L.
TI  - Quantitative decision making with spreadsheet applications
SN  - 0534380247
AV  - HD30.23 .L36 2002
PY  - 2002///
CY  - Belmont, CA
PB  - Duxbury/Thomson Learning
KW  - Decision making
KW  - Mathematical models
KW  - Operations research
KW  - Statistical decision
N1  - Rev. ed. of: Quantitative methods for business decisions. 6th ed. c1994; Includes bibliographical references (p. [772]-776) and index; Introduction to Quantitative Methods -- Continuing Stories of Success with Quantitative Methods -- Management Science and Operations Research -- Organization and Purpose of This Book -- Models and Decision Making -- Computer Solutions -- The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods -- Introduction to Spreadsheets with Excel -- The First Excel Window -- Entering Formulas, Copying, Editing, and Formatting -- Spreadsheet Arithmetic -- Displaying Excel Results -- Graphing Using Excel's Chart Wizard -- Using Excel with This Text -- Decision Making and Planning with Uncertainty -- Probability Concepts: Quantifying Uncertainty -- The Language of Probability: Basic Concepts -- Probabilities for Composite Events -- Joint Probability and the Multiplication Law -- Finding Probabilities Using the Addition Law -- Statistical Independence -- Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Law -- Probability Trees -- Revising Probabilities Using Bayes' Theorem -- Subjective Probability -- Probability Distributions and Expected Value -- Random Variables and Probability Distributions -- Expected Value -- Finding the Probability Distribution -- The Binomial Distribution -- The Normal Distribution -- Poisson and Exponential Distributions -- (Optional) Judgmental Assessment of the Probability Distribution -- Decision-Making Concepts -- Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making -- Elements of Decisions -- Ranking the Alternatives and the Payoff Table -- Maximizing Expected Payoff: The Bayes Decision Rule -- Other Decision Criteria -- Opportunity Loss and the Expected Value of Perfect Information -- Decision Tree Analysis -- Decision-Making and Risk: Certainty Equivalents and Utility -- Decision Making Using Certainty Equivalents -- Decision Making with Utility -- The Utility for Money -- (Optional) Attitudes Toward Risk and Valuation in Decision Making -- Forecasting -- Forecasting Using Past Data: Time-Series Analysis -- Exponential Smoothing -- Forecasting Trend Using Regression -- Forecasting Using Causal Models: Regression Analysis -- Forecasting Using Seasonal Indexes -- Further Forecasting Procedures and the Role of Judgment -- (Optional) Statistical Fundamentals of Regression Analysis -- Resource Allocation -- Linear Programming -- The Redwood Furniture Problem -- Formulating the Linear Program -- Solving Linear Programs Graphically -- Special Problems in Constructing Lines -- Problems with More Than Two Constraints -- Cost Minimization: A Feed-Mix Problem -- Steps and Rationale for Graphical Solution -- Mixture and Equality Constraints -- Multiple Optimal Solutions -- Infeasible Problems -- Unbounded Problems -- Linear Programming Applications and Solution Procedures -- Graphing Using a Spreadsheet -- Linear Programming Applications and Computer Solutions -- Linear Programming in Manufacturing: Product-Mix Selection -- Formulating Constraints and the Standardized Format -- Slack and Surplus Variables -- Solving Problems Using the Computer -- Linear Programming in Finance: Portfolio Selection -- Linear Programming in Transportation: Shipment Scheduling -- Linear Programming in Marketing: Budgeting Advertising Expenditures -- Linear Programming in Human Resources: Assigning Personnel -- Linear Programming in Refining: Liquid Blending -- Linear Programming in Food Processing: The Diet Problem -- (Optional) The Simplex Method -- (Optional) Saving Problem Data and Exhanging Data Files -- Sensitivity Analysis and Duality in Linear Programming -- Shadow Prices and Opportunity Costs -- The Dual Linear Program -- Evaluating New Products Using the Dual -- Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming -- Post-Optimality Analysis -- (Optional) Dual for a Generalized Linear Program -- (Optional) The Dual for a Cost-Minimization Primal Linear Program -- Integer and Goal Programming -- Integer Programming -- Computer Applications with Integer Programming -- Integer Programming Applications -- Multi-Objective Evaluations Using Goal Programming -- Solving Goal Programs on the Computer -- Distribution, Routing, and Scheduling -- Transportation and Assignment Problems -- A Ski Shipment Scheduling Illustration -- Getting Started: The Northwest Corner Method -- Solving the Problem: The Transportation Method -- Computer Solution to Transportation Problems -- Imbalanced Capacity and Demand: Dummy Rows and Columns -- The Transshipment Problem -- The Assignment Problem -- (Optional) Starting Procedures Based on Cost -- (Optional) Other Applications of the Transportation Problem -- Network Models -- The Structure of Network Problems -- The Shortest Route Problem -- Minimal Spanning Tree Problem -- The Maximum Flow Problem -- The Minimum Cost Maximum Flow Problem -- Further Network Considerations -- (Optional) The Out-of-Kilter Algorithm -- Project Management with PERT and CPM -- The Importance of Time in Planning -- The Basic Concepts of PERT -- An Analysis of the PERT Network -- Planning and Control Using the PERT Network -- Computer Applications with PERT/CPM -- Time--Cost Trade-Off Evaluations with PERT -- Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates -- Implementing PERT and Further Considerations -- (Optional) Alternative Network Graph: The CPM Network -- (Optional) PERT Network Evaluations Using Spreadsheets -- Inventory Management -- Inventory Decisions with Certain Factors -- Factors Influencing Inventory Policy -- The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model -- Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering -- Establishing Inventory Policies Based on Service Level -- Inventory Policy for Lost Sales -- Economic Production Quantity Model -- Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors -- Making an Inventory Decision: Maximizing Expected Payoff -- Single-Period Inventory Decision: The Newsvendor Problem -- Continuous Probability Distribution for Demand: The Christmas Tree Problem -- Multiperiod Inventory Policies -- The EOQ Models for Normally Distributed Demand -- Analytic and Numerical Solution Methods -- Development of the Inventory Model Spreadsheets -- Simulation and Waiting Lines -- Waiting Lines (Queues) -- Basic Queuing Situations -- The Single-Server Queuing Model with Exponential Service Times -- Interpreting Queuing Formulas and Alternative Expressions -- The Multiple-Server Queuing Model -- Sensitivity Analysis with Spreadsheets -- A Model for Nonexponential Service Times -- Further Queuing Probability Topics -- (Optional) Some Further Queuing Models -- (Optional) Testing for Goodness of Fit -- Spreadsheet Development -- Simulation -- Concepts and Procedures: A Waiting-Line Simulation -- Simulation and the Computer -- Simulation and PERT -- Simulating Inventory Policies -- Simulation and Forecasting -- Further Spreadsheet Applications -- Simulation in Finance: Risk Analysis -- Simulation Versus the Analytic Solution -- The Statistical Aspects of Simulation -- Cumulative Values for the Binomial Probability Distribution -- Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve -- Loss Fuction for Decision Making with the Normal Curve -- Exponential Functions -- Cumulative Probability Values for the Poisson Distribution -- Random Numbers -- Critical Values of D for Kilmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit Test
N2  - Written for readers with a background in algebra, this book provides a complete and modern treatment of basic management science methodology. The authors survey the variety and power of management science tools, working to alleviate readers' apprehension about the subject and to enable readers to recognize on-the-job situations in which management science methodology can be successfully employed
ER  -